What’s so bad about uncertainty?
What’s so bad about uncertainty?
It’s clear much of the outcry after the Brexit vote on June 23 has been about the potential economic instability ahead.
August 4, 2016

By Ross Martin, Accountancy Director at Hive Business

It’s clear much of the outcry after the Brexit vote on June 23 has been about the potential economic instability ahead.

Listening to the commentariat and the political classes digest our new reality has been comically absurd at times. A discussion on Radio 4 the other day went something like: “So, the FTSE index has reacted badly to the uncertainty, but how much uncertainty is there?” “Yes, well it’s difficult to say precisely how much uncertainty we’re dealing with but that’s the point — we just don’t know.” “I guess you could say we’re uncertain about the uncertainty…”

Uncertainty breeds anxiety, and humans don’t do well with it. Uncertainty explains the gargantuan UK insurance industry — at £1.8 trillion the third largest in the world — and explains why, in our relationships, we simply can’t stop craving more information about the other party.

In case there was any lingering doubt about how much we truly loathe uncertainty, a new study published by nature.com — the most sophisticated experiment ever on the relationship between uncertainty and stress by the way — shows that uncertainty is even more stressful to humans than knowing something bad is definitely going to happen.

I think this explains why, collectively and individually, when we don’t have control we feel more comfortable wringing our hands than studying the changes in play around us. The key thing to remember is that all changes produce opportunities and threats so preparation is really the only thing that counts.

Being prepared for unexpected change requires first of all an acceptance that you don’t have control and never have — not easy, least of all because we tend to value control above all our other capacities. Yet meditators practice giving up control because they see our instinctive efforts to outrun risk as dead ends that obstruct our grasp of reality.

Those who learn to live with uncertainty tend to do well for the simple reason that uncertainty is guaranteed, it’s our ability to cope with it that isn’t. Right now there’s an ongoing threat of recession coupled with some alarming geo-political events and environmental changes that might just combine in your life with relationship troubles, staffing crises, births and deaths.

Is that “bad” or is it just life? In business surely the ability to improvise and adapt through uncertainty is the whole point, how else has anyone ever managed to get ahead? I have to admit I am genuinely excited about the challenges ahead. In another context, it wouldn’t be unfair to say Jenson Button doesn’t have the best car in Formula One but when it rains the technological advantages of other cars are neutralised and Button’s experience and ability let him adapt to the conditions more successfully — often propelling him to the podium.

Let’s accept there will always be peaks and troughs. All you can do about Brexit is make your trough (if that’s what it is) shallower than everyone else’s. In dentistry these days, what with the larger overheads from rising costs and regulation, that may mean you survive while others go under. What’s so bad about that? If you’d like to discuss how to build a strategy to inoculate your business against changes outside your control, get in touch on 01872 300232 or email us at hello@hivebusiness.co.uk.

The information contained in this article is based on the opinion of Hive Business and does not constitute formal tax advice. Any tax outcomes will be based on individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation, which are subject to change in the future. You should seek specific advice before embarking on any course of action. Hive Business does not provide regulated Financial Advice, including advice on investment, insurance or lending products or their suitability for you. This article is provided for information only and does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact, or not transact, in any investment including Bitcoin and other crypto. Any use you wish to make of any information contained within this article is, therefore, entirely at your own risk.

By Ross Martin Group Chairman
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